Foreign Tourism Decline Could Cost U.S. Economy Up to $90 Billion by 2025

The U.S. economy is facing a multi-billion dollar blow in 2025 due to a sharp decline in international tourism and growing boycotts of American products. This trend, which has intensified in recent months, threatens to worsen recession risks and impact key sectors of the national economy.

According to data from the International Trade Administration, the number of foreign visitors arriving by air fell by nearly 10% in March compared to the same month last year. This decline adds to a negative trend that, according to Goldman Sachs estimates, could cost up to 0.3% of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2025—equivalent to nearly $90 billion.

A Worrying Decline in International Tourism

International tourism had been a driver of post-pandemic recovery, with record spending of $254 billion in 2024 and optimistic projections for 2025. However, the situation has changed dramatically. Initial forecasts of 77 million visitors this year—close to the 2019 record—now seem unattainable due to growing perceptions of hostility at U.S. borders, geopolitical tensions, and an uncertain global economic climate.

Several factors explain this setback. On one hand, stricter immigration policies and incidents of detentions at U.S. airports have generated negative headlines, especially among travelers from European countries such as France and Germany. On the other hand, the Trump administration’s rhetoric and trade measures—including tariffs and controversial statements toward historic allies like Canada—have provoked adverse reactions from both tourists and foreign consumers.

The case of Canada is illustrative: Canadians, who make up the largest group of international tourists to the U.S., are choosing to stay home or travel elsewhere. Flight bookings from Canada to the U.S. are down 70% through September compared to a year earlier, and retail spending by international tourists in the U.S. could fall by nearly $20 billion, according to Goldman Sachs.

In addition, perceptions of insecurity and travel warnings have deterred potential visitors, while boycotts of U.S. products are spreading in key markets, affecting both tourism and exports.

A Billion-Dollar Impact on the U.S. Economy

International travel and tourism are key pillars of the U.S. economy, generating $2.9 trillion in economic output and supporting 15 million jobs in 2024. The drop in tourist arrivals is already reflected in declining airfares, hotel prices, and car rental rates, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Regions such as the Northeast, which traditionally depend on Canadian tourism, are experiencing drops of up to 11% in hotel rates.

Companies in the tourism sector, such as tour operators and hotel chains, are re-evaluating their strategies and anticipate a difficult summer. Meanwhile, state authorities, such as Oregon’s tourism commission, are maintaining efforts to attract international visitors, though they are considering a shift toward domestic tourism if the trend persists.

Economists warn that this new obstacle adds to the direct effects of tariffs and the slowdown in exports, which could result in economic growth falling short of expectations in 2025.

In this context, the country could face not only an immediate loss of revenue, but also lasting damage to its appeal as a global destination.