Most Americans Fear Inflation Due to Trump’s Tariff War

A recent poll reveals that most Americans expect President Donald Trump’s tariff war to drive inflation and negatively impact the economy in the short term. However, Republican supporters remain confident that these measures will boost manufacturing job creation in the long run.

The YouGov poll for CBS, conducted from April 8 to 11, 2025, with a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points, shows that 75% of respondents anticipate rising inflation due to tariffs, while 65% believe the U.S. economy will suffer in the coming months.

These findings reflect growing concern over Trump’s trade policies, which have included tariffs of up to 10% on global imports and additional rates as high as 145% on countries like China, according to recent reports.

Only 30% of respondents believe prices will decrease in the long term, and 34% think the economy will improve over time due to these measures. However, 49% believe tariffs will spur manufacturing job growth. Among this group, 85% of self-identified Republicans expressed optimism, anticipating new U.S. factories and more job opportunities.

Clear Polarization

Political polarization is stark: 91% of Republican voters believe Trump has a clear trade policy plan, while 84% of Democrats argue he lacks a defined strategy. Additionally, 51% of respondents support Trump’s goals, compared to 49% who disapprove. However, 63% criticize his implementation approach, against 37% who approve.

Regarding new tariffs, 42% favor imposing duties on imports, while 58% oppose them. This rejection aligns with recent economic estimates, like those from the Peterson Institute, which suggest tariffs could cost the average U.S. household about $1,700 annually due to price increases.

The poll also indicates that 59% of Americans view tariffs as a negotiation tool Trump might withdraw after securing concessions, while 41% believe he will maintain them permanently. This perception is supported by a recent 90-day tariff pause announcement, though tensions with China persist after mutual retaliations raised rates to historic levels.

75% of respondents anticipate rising inflation due to tariffs. Source: tradingeconomics.

Broader Trends

Trump’s overall approval has declined since his January 2025 inauguration. A 53% disapproval rate marks a six-point increase from February. Disapproval is even higher for his handling of the economy (56%, up from 49% in February) and inflation (60%, compared to 44% two months ago). These figures align with economists’ warnings, such as Goldman Sachs raising the U.S. recession probability to 45% if tariffs persist, and JPMorgan projecting 4.4% inflation by the end of 2025.

April 2025 data shows tariffs have sparked market volatility, with significant Wall Street drops after their initial announcement, though stocks rebounded following the 90-day pause. A Moody’s Analytics report also warned that tariffs could trigger a U.S. recession and strain public finances due to growing deficits.

Internationally, key USMCA partners like Mexico and Canada face projected economic contractions of 1,3% and 0,7%, respectively, for 2025, per the OECD, underscoring the regional impact of these policies.

Despite Republican optimism, polls and economic projections suggest Trump’s tariffs pose a significant risk to economic stability, both in the U.S. and globally, as uncertainty continues to dominate the trade landscape.