Trump’s Speech to the Nation Mixed Statistical Realities

While November’s 2.7% CPI print suggests cooling inflation, analysts warn of statistical anomalies due to data collection gaps during the recent government shutdown

President Donald Trump on Wednesday offered a speech that could leave anyone thinking they are living on Fantasy Island. The president delivered a speech full of facts and controversy. He claimed wages were outpacing inflation, but ‌in January, although wages were up by 4.1%, the last November job report mentioned that it had gone down to 3.5%.

He also claimed the gasoline prices were under $2.50 a gallon, and that in some states had hit to $1.99. The fact is that, according to the federal Energy Information Administration, the average regular gas price is $2.89. According to AAA, the national average is $2.90.

In the Los Angeles market, select fueling stations are seeing price spikes reaching the $4.50 to $4.69 per gallon range. While daily and weekly averages exhibit minor volatility, prices consistently hover in the low-to-mid $4 bracket, cementing California’s position as one of the most expensive fuel markets in the nation.

The President’s most immediate proposal is the $1,776 "Warrior Dividend." Scheduled for distribution before the year-end, these one-time, non-taxable payments are earmarked for approximately 1.5 million active-duty and reserve service members. Trump framed the dividend as a direct redistribution of tariff revenue, linking trade protectionism to tangible domestic benefits. However, budget analysts note the funds originate from $2.9 billion in Congressional reconciliation funds previously intended for housing allowances, rather than new tariff income.

The President further asserted that turkey prices this past Thanksgiving plummeted by 33% relative to the prior year under the Biden administration. For the current cycle, he cited a 3.7% price reduction for national brands. However, data from the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute offers a more conservative estimate, pegging the year-over-year decline at between 2% and 3%.

Trump mentioned that the inflation rate was down compared to last year. In January, it was 3%. April 2.5%. The latest number for September was back to 3%. According to Ambito, "The Department of Labor’s report revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year in November, cooling from the previous month's 3% print. This figure significantly outperformed the economic consensus, which had projected a 3.1% increase. A similar trend was observed in core inflation, which came in at 2.6%—beating both analyst forecasts and the prior reading."

Based on NBC News data, Trump said: “Already, I’ve secured a record-breaking $18 trillion of investment into the United States.”

“This figure is false. Experts say the actual figure is significantly lower, by many trillions of dollars, and the White House itself lists a figure of $9.6 trillion on its website as of Wednesday evening.”

“Other analyses of Trump’s evolving numbers on foreign investments have noted that he includes in his tally amorphous pledges made by U.S. trade partners, which involve investments by companies in those countries, promises the government has little power to enforce.”

A recent Bloomberg News fact-check “found the real figure closer to $7 trillion. But there, too, many of the investments were vague pledges or parts of framework trade deals that have not yet been signed.”

The analysis also highlighted that some foreign pledges—such as those from Qatar ($1.2 trillion) and the UAE ($1.4 trillion) were multiple times larger than those countries' entire annual GDP, calling into question how much of that capital would ever realistically be deployed in the U.S.

According to Ambito, "The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) previously announced it would not release headline or core CPI figures for October, following data collection disruptions caused by the prolonged government shutdown.

According to a research note from Capital Economics, data collection for November only resumed mid-month. 'While this may reflect a genuine easing of inflationary pressures, such a sudden drop—particularly in "sticky" service components like shelter—is highly atypical outside of a recessionary environment,' the firm noted. 'In short, we will probably have to wait for the December data release next month to determine whether this is a statistical anomaly or evidence of true disinflation."

Looking ahead, President Trump’s national address functioned as a strategic pivot, aiming to leverage populist dividends and aggressive trade rhetoric to counteract a cooling labor market.

However, the bridge between the President’s narrative and the underlying economic reality remains tenuous.

While markets welcomed November’s 2.7% CPI print, the shadow cast by the October data gap—and the "vague" nature of nearly $18 trillion in claimed investments—suggests that the administration is operating on a highly optimistic set of assumptions. As 2025 draws to a close, investors and households alike will have to determine if this "economic boom" is a tangible reality or a statistical outlier fueled by a temporary pause in inflationary pressures.