Europe's Aerospace Ambitions Are Real, But Still on the Runway

The notion that Europe’s aviation and aerospace industries are booming might be a bit premature.

As Malcolm Foster, CTO at Sora Aviation, rightly points out, “Airbus 2024 revenues were still below 2019, and it’s worth noting that 2019 was below 2014.” What we’re seeing now is less a boom and more a bounce, recovery from the pandemic rather than true long-term growth.

That said, Foster outlines three key forces that could push the industry forward. First, rising global demand for air travel remains persistent. Second, the war in Ukraine has reawakened European defence spending, with a new emphasis on domestic production.

And third, real technological breakthroughs, particularly in advanced composites, are poised to transform aircraft design, although these won't yield commercial impact until all-new aircraft concepts take flight.

Sustainability is another critical driver, but the current technology mix is underwhelming. “All forms of SAF still involve burning carbon at altitude, this is not sustainable,” says Foster. Hydrogen, in his view, is the only viable long-term fuel for transport-category aircraft.

Europe has shown leadership in hydrogen propulsion, with Airbus, GKN, and the UK’s FlyZero programme laying serious groundwork. But meaningful change will require regulatory courage. “When [regulators] have the guts to restrict carbon-based fuels, Europe will have a leading position.”

Electric aviation, meanwhile, faces serious range and infrastructure limitations, unless it goes vertical.

Foster believes VTOL aircraft could reshape short-range air travel, especially in urban settings, but Europe is falling behind. “Only one [European] horse remains in the race, and it’s living day to day on limited funding.”

Regulators like EASA deserve credit for supporting innovation, particularly in eVTOL certification frameworks. But the sector's growth is ultimately a funding challenge.

Post-Brexit uncertainty has faded, and trans-European defence projects like GCAP offer new opportunities. Yet as Foster warns, “Private investment in Europe is not as readily available as in the United States... and governmental programs may not be as committed long-term.”

Innovation in Europe is real, but unless public and private stakeholders make bold, aligned commitments, the continent risks watching others taxi to the runway first.